(Photo courtesy of AP.com)
Playoff baseball is right around the corner. It is so close you can begin to smell it. With playoff baseball comes another season of "Red October" for the Phillies. With the final month of the regular season upon us, we can begin to look at the path for the Phillies to return to the postseason.
Here we are going to break down the Phillies path to the NL East crown all the way through to their path to home field advantage throughout the NL Playoffs. This is every fan's source for outlook of the remainder of the season for the Phillies and the rest of the NL.
When looking at the Phillies path, we need to focus on the schedules of the teams that stand in the club's way. For the NL East title, we have to focus on the Braves and the Mets. When we look at the 1st round bye and 1st overall seed in the NL, we need to look at the Brewers and the Dodgers.
Magic numbers:
Playoff berth- 15 games
NL East- 17
1st round bye- 21
Just to put into perspective how important playing home baseball in the playoffs is for the Phillies, check out these home vs away record for them.
Home: 47-25
Away: 36-31
The Phillies can begin to clinch both a playoff berth and the NL East crown as early as September 13th. This would happen if the Phillies won every game until then and the Braves and Mets both lose every game until then. The Phillies will begin a 10-game stretch on the 13th with 3 games against the Brewers and 7 against the Mets. They will either fully eliminate the Mets, wrap up the NL East, or if they lose all 7 games, fully blow their NL East lead.
There is little to no chance the Phillies will have the NL East wrapped up on the 13th, however by then the number can be much lower and the end can be in site. That same weekend, the Braves begin a series with the Dodgers. The Braves have been getting hammered with injuries this season, so even though they have an easier schedule, the depleted roster will benefit the Phillies.
Phillies- 13th easiest schedule
Tough opponents- Brewers, Mets, and Cubs
Easier opponents- Marlins, Nationals, and Rays
NL East
Braves- 8th easiest schedule
Tough opponents- Dodgers, Mets, and Royals
Easier opponents- Rockies, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, and Blue Jays
Mets- 4th hardest schedule
Tough opponents- Phillies, Brewers, Braves, and Red Sox
Easier opponents- Nationals, Reds, and Blue Jays
Looking at the schedule for the Phillies, they have a winning record this season against every opponent (except for the Rays since this is their 1st meeting.) With the Phillies having 7 games remaining against the Mets, the Phillies can put them away themselves. Since the Braves have a very favorable schedule, they are going to need some help from some of the lower teams in the NL. The Phillies are in the driver's seat for the NL East crown.
Realistic easiest path forward for the Phillies to clinch the NL East
They win at least 10 games (I won't be upset with more than 10) between the Marlins, Nationals, Rays, and Cubs series. It would be nice to say they win all 13 games against those 4 teams, but we need to think realistic. It does not matter how they get those 10 wins, but for those 4 teams they need at least 10 wins. It does not matter how, just get 10 wins (but please get more than 10 for the sanity of Philadelphia.)
They need to take at least 4 of 7 from the Mets, but to make everyone saner, they need to win at least 5 games. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and not a team that we need to see in October. Those 7 games can fully eliminate them from any and all playoff conversation.
Looking at the Mets and Braves schedules, I think the most likely outcome for the Phillies is to clinch the NL East title is when they head to New York for a 4-game series with the Mets beginning on September 19th.
1st round bye/1st overall seed
We need to note the tie breakers between the Phillies and both these teams. The Phillies no matter what will hold the tiebreaker with the Dodgers with the season series being 5-1. As long as the Phillies do not get swept in their series against the Brewers, the Phillies will own the tiebreaker with the Brewers as well.
Brewers- 9th hardest schedule
Tough opponents- Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Mets
Easier opponents- Rockies, Pirates, and Giants
Dodgers- 4th easiest schedule
Tough opponents- Guardians, Padres, Braves, and Cubs
Easier opponents- Rockies and Marlins
The difference in records between all 3 teams is very small. Currently the Dodgers lead the NL, followed by the Phillies, then the Brewers. This is going to come down to the final games to determine the top seeds in the NL. With this being so close, with the Phillies owning the tie breaker with the Dodgers and very likely the Brewers as well, this is going to be huge for the team.
Realistic easiest path forward for the Phillies to clinch the 1st round bye/1st overall seed
Assuming the Phillies do everything, I have said above, they will have at least 14 wins in their final 23 games. That right there should be enough to get the job done for at least a 1st round bye. Milwaukee has a tough schedule with 7 games against the Diamondbacks, plus games against the Mets and Phillies.
The Phillies are only 1 game behind the Dodgers and own the tie breaker. The Phillies are really going to need teams like the Guardians and Padres to upset the Dodgers and win their respective series with the Dodgers. The Phillies cannot control what happens with Milwaukee or Los Angelas but are well within their powers to take the top spot in the NL. Even though they need some help from other teams, they still need to focus from here on out.
-Adam Mack
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