Penn State is set to compete in the College Football Playoff for the 1st time in program history. This Saturday they will face off against SMU at 12pm from Beaver Stadium. Penn State is coming off a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, while SMU is coming off a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship.
Saturday's game will be the 2nd of 4 opening round games in the College Football 12- team playoff. Both teams are making their first appearances in the College Football Playoff. This will be the 3rd all-time meeting between Penn State and SMU with the record being 1-0-1 in favor of the Nittany Lions..
Nittany Lion News
The big news for Penn State this week was QB Drew Allar announced that he will be returning to Penn State in 2025. What does that have to do with Saturday's matchup? Due to the horrible transfer portal windows, back-up QB Beau Pribula has entered the transfer portal and has left the team. Even though he was the back-up, Pribula still played a key role in the offense. He had 275 yards and 5 touchdowns this season and filled in during the Wisconsin game when Allar left due to an injury.
True freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer is now expected to be the primary back-up behind Allar. It is unclear if Grunkemeyer will play against SMU and fill in for Pribula or if Allar is expected to take on all of Pribula's reps as well. This loss is not a giant loss to this offense. It is worth noting if Allar had to exit the game and for the snaps that Pribula usually takes. Not a huge concern, but worth keeping an eye on.
Scouting the opposition
SMU is led by QB Kevin Jennings. So far in 2024, Jennings has thrown 3,050 yards ,22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. On the ground Jennings has added 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jennings has a very strong arm and has great mobility. Throughout the season an area of concern for the Mustangs has been their offensive line and pass blocking. Jennings has been flushed out the pocket on a very consistent basis, but he excels at making something out of nothing.
On defense, SMU has been one of the best run defenses in all of college football. SMU is currently the 4th best rush defense in college football. It is worth noting that SMU has not faced a running back duo to the level of Penn State. The secondary is the team's biggest concerns. They rank outside the top 100 in college football in yards allowed in the passing game. SMU has struggled with defending the deep throws all season long.
What does Vegas say?
There has to be someone reading this that wants to know what Vegas thinks of this game.
Penn State is currently an 8.5 point favorites over SMU. For money line, Penn State-320 and SMU +255 to win the game outright.
Penn State is 0-3 against the spread against ranked teams
SMU is 1-2 against the spread against ranked teams
Both teams are 1-0 against the spread after a loss
Penn State 3-4 against the spread at home
SMU is 3-2 against the spread on the road
Penn State is 6-7 against the spread this season
SMU is 8-5 against the spread this season
Keys to the game for Penn State
On offense Penn State needs to establish the run game early. Even though SMU has a strong run defense, it is hard not to look at their opponents. SMU has not faced a run game to the level of Penn State. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen bring over 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns to the table. If Penn State can get this run game going early, this will allow Drew Allar to pick a part this SMU secondary that has struggled all season long.
Defensively Abdul Carter needs to show everyone how much he can take over a game. SMU struggled to protect Kevin Jennings and forced him into bad throws or to make the play with his legs. Beaver Stadium is going to be loud and it is going to be cold. SMU has not played in an environment like this in 2024. Making Jennings uncomfortable and forcing him into bad throws will keep the Penn State offense on the field.
Drew Allar's biggest weakness has been his decision making with the ball. This SMU secondary will provide Penn State receivers and Allar plently of opportunities to throw and connect with the deep ball. Allar needs to protect the ball and understand that there will be a ton of options to throw. SMU is going to have to take advantage of any and all turnovers they get. Allar cannot give them any opportunities.
Prediction
With SMU not having played a cold game nor seeing a student section like Penn State, I think they get off to a very slow start. Penn State will take advantage of the early mistakes from SMU and never look back.
Penn State 27 SMU 20.
Nicholas SIngleton leads the way for Penn State while he rushes for over 100 yards and 1 touchdown. Fresh off an All-American honor, Tyler Warren has another monster game that ends with another touchdown. Abdul Carter does exactly what he needs to do and not only has a multi sack game, but one of those sacks is a strick sack.
-Adam Mack
AATSports
Vintage Penn State
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