Penn State is set to kick off their 2024 campaign in just under two weeks. Now in his 11th season with the Nittany Lions, James Franklin is looking for a bounce back season and wants to return his team to the national spotlight. In the 1st year of a 12-team playoff as well as the 1st year of the new Big Ten era, the pressure has never been bigger for Franklin. In his previous 10 seasons, he's won 3 New Year's six bowl games, 1 Big Ten Championship, and no playoff appearances.
Penn State is returning a lot of talent on all sides of the ball. On defense, captain LB Kobe King and Preseason AP All-American Abdul Carter are both set to keep the Penn State defense atop of college football. QB Drew Allar is coming off a disappointing season, but he adds Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming to his WR core. The biggest change for Penn State comes at both coordinators. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen replaces Manny Diaz at defensive coordinator after Diaz departed the program to become the head coach at Duke University. Former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki comes to Penn State after Mike Yurich was fired during the 2023 season.
Week 1- @ West Virginia
Penn State opens the 2024 season against West Virginia in a tough road matchup. Last season, Penn State dominated this match-up in Happy Valley. A match-up on the road with 3 brand new coordinators is going to be tough for Penn State. Looking at both teams, it is easy to see that Penn State has the better roster. With 3 new voices on staff, there is sure to be some hiccups week 1.
WVU is coming off a season where they exceeded expectations. QB Garrett Greene returns and also returns a handful of WR's from 2023. Playing on the road in Morgantown is never an easy task. Even with last year's season opening defeat to Penn State in the back of their minds, WVU is ready for revenge on their home field. This game is much closer than what people think, and more than likely this game comes down to the final possession.
Penn State 30 West Virginia 24
1-0
Week 2- Bowling Green
Penn State's home opener will be against Bowling Green. A road match-up against Penn State is not an easy task for Bowling Green, especially when their next match-up is on the road against Texas A&M. New Penn State DC Tom Allen is very familiar with new Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak, who was the starting QB for Allen back at Indiana.
Penn State is coming off a tough road game against WVU, but the hiccups from week 1 do not roll into week 2. Penn State is just too talented for Bowling Green.
Penn State 42 Bowling Green 17
2-0
Week 3- BYE
Week 4- Kent State
Penn State will be coming off a rare week 3 bye to close out their non-conference schedule against Kent State. The Golden Flashes are coming off an 1-11 2023 season. A road test against Penn State is not going to go over smoothly for them.
Penn State 35 Kent State 0
3-0
Week 5- Illinois
Penn State will begin Big Ten play with a home match-up against Illinois, who are coming off a disappointing season where they held very high expectations. Like all of the games so far this season, Penn State on paper has the better roster. However, Illinois always comes into Happy Valley prepared for the team and crowd. Do I think Illinois comes out victorious after 9 overtimes like the last time they came to Penn State? No, but this game is closer than you would think.
The key for this victory is for Drew Allar to complete passes early. Illinois run defense is one of the best in college football. With the run game going to be very hard to get going, Allar needs to keep the offense moving with his arm.
Penn State 30 Illinois 17
4-0
Week 6 UCLA
Penn State welcomes UCLA to Happy Valley in their first match-up as conference foes. UCLA is in year 1 of a rebuild after Chip Kelly departed the program to take the OC position at Ohio State. By the time Penn State and UCLA play, UCLA will have played at LSU, at home against Oregon, and then at Penn State, all in consecutive weeks. A gauntlet of travel for the Bruins is sure to benefit Penn State who will be playing their 4th straight home game.
The biggest upside for UCLA is they are returning the core of their WR's from 2023. However, the depth of Penn State's secondary is sure to disrupt UCLA's pass game. Penn State will need to get their offense moving this week. UCLA has question marks all over their defense that is only returning 2 starters from 2023. When you combine UCLA's travel and their lack of defense.
Penn State 49 UCLA 17
5-0
Week 7 @ USC
Penn State's 1st big test of the season occurs October 12th, when they travel to USC. Last year's defense really struggled against high pace offenses, and Lincoln Riley has always played with a high pace. USC will look to Miller Moss as QB1 in the post Caleb Williams era.
The biggest question mark for USC has and will be their defense. The offense is returning a majority of their offense from 2023 and the only real question mark on offense is the QB. Defensively USC has a lot of question marks. I think the Penn State defense can hold this USC offense, but the real debate will come down to the Penn State offense vs the USC defense. There is more uncertainty for the USC defense then there is with the Penn State offense.
Penn State 27 USC 17
6-0
Week 8- BYE
Week 9- @ Wisconsin
Penn State is coming off their bye week with a trip to Madison to face off against Wisconsin. There are a lot of question marks regarding Wisconsin, but with early season matchups with USC and Alabama, by week 8 we should know everything we need to know about the Badgers.
The key for the Penn State offense is going to be to establish the run game early. Wisconsin's secondary is coming off a season where they finished top 10 in the country. They return almost everyone from that same secondary. This is not going to be the game that Drew Allar throws for 300 yards. This game has to be won on the ground. Especially coming off a bye week, James Franklin needs to ease Allar and the offense back into the swing of things. This could be a possible upset watch, but that Penn State defense wins a close one.
Penn State 20 Wisconsin 10
7-0
Week 10- Ohio State
The matchup we have all been waiting for. Penn State welcomes Ohio State back to Beaver Stadium. James Franklin's biggest downfall is he has only been able to beat Ohio State once while he has been at Penn State. There is not a roster in college football that is better than Ohio State. Even with all the talent they lost from 2023, Ryan Day went on the recruiting trail and replaced every single loss with someone better (with the exception of Marvin Harrison Jr.)
Penn State is going to have their hands full with Ohio State. The Penn State defense is going to be able to contain Will Howard and this Ohio State offense. Will Drew Allar be able to overcome last season's bad performance and beat Ohio State? If Penn State is going to upset Ohio State, this is the year. They have the talent and they have Ohio State at home. Everything is there for Penn State to pull off the upset. However, the game is close, but Ohio State is to skilled all over the field and they win it late.
Ohio State 24 Penn State 14
7-1
Week 11- Washington
Penn State should be thrilled they are playing Washington this year and not last. There are so many unknowns with this Washington team. They return plenty of talent defensively, but this is going to be a brand-new offense for the Huskies. The Washington defense is going to be tough for Penn State to navigate. The other plus side for Penn State is, this will be Washington's 3 road game in 4 weeks.
Washington's secondary is elite, but their offense has so many unknowns. They could be elite like last season or they could be a giant mess. Penn State struggles a lot after a loss and they are on upset alert. A last second field goal wins it for Penn State.
Penn State 30 Washington 27
8-1
Week 12- @ Purdue
Purdue will host Penn State in what will end a gauntlet of games that feature games against Oregon, Northwestern, Ohio State, and finally Penn State. The Purdue offense in 2023 was ranked 107th in receiving. Heading into 2024, they lost their 4 leading receivers from 2023. With Penn State having such a deep secondary, the Purdue offense is going to have to rely on their defense to hold Penn State.
That gauntlet of a schedule that Purdue has is tough. If Penn State played them at the start, then there is an argument that Penn State could be on upset alert. By week 12, Purdue will be ready to start thinking about 2025.
Penn State 27 Purdue 10
9-1
Week 13- @ Minnesota
Penn State is closing in on one of their best regular seasons of the James Franklin era and a trip to Minnesota will probably continue that. Assuming everything we know about Penn State, their run game needs to be ready for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have one of the strongest pass rushes on their schedule. However, with a strong running back room, Penn State will need to get these guys going to win on the road.
Minnesota has one of the worst pass games on the Penn State schedule. They have a strong run game, but if the pass game fades out again, their offense becomes one dimensional. Penn State needs a big game from their defense to get Minnesota off their tracks on offense. If the Penn State defense has just a decent game, then they can walk away with the victory.
Penn State 33 Minnesota 10
10-1
Week 14- Maryland
This is Penn State's game to lose. Maryland has a good defense, but they have a giant question mark at QB. The Terps lost Taulia Tagvailoa and will now have to replace the best QB in school history. They picked up two transfers via the portal, but both lack starting experience at the collegiate level.
This should be an easy win for Penn State.
Penn State 35 Maryland 17
11-1
Penn State has a very favorable schedule in 2024. They get tested early with West Virginia but have a stretch of home games for over a month. Their big tests will be on the road at USC and when they host Ohio State. Fortunate for them, Penn State does not play Oregon or Michigan in 2024.
If they finish 11-1 there is a good chance, they could find themselves in the Big Ten Championship game. What they need to happen is for Ohio State to beat Oregon on October 12th. If that happens, then Penn State could find their way into the Big Ten Championship with a rematch with the Buckeyes.
Looking ahead to the College Football Playoff. With the playoff being expanded to 12 teams, an 11-1 Penn State could find their way into the playoff regardless of if they play in the Big Ten Championship Game. With Ohio State and Oregon both expected to also have strong seasons, Penn State could make the playoff for the first time in school history.
The big question for Penn State is not if they have the talent to compete for the Big Ten or a playoff spot. The question is, can James Franklin win the big games. He has the roster to do so this season. His big test is against Ohio State. Even though Ohio State has the edge, Penn State has the team to make it competitive. With a trip to the Big Ten Championship on the line that week, Penn State needs to be ready for that game.
-Adam Mack
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