There are a few strategies that every NFL DFS player needs to employ each week, with the most important being, playing a RB or WR with a late game in your FLEX spot. This allows you to see how things are going in the 1:00 games and see if you are cashing or not. If your lineup is cashing, you can afford to play a chalky (highly owned) player. If your lineup is not cashing, you will need to make up some ground and the best way to do that is to play a lower owned player. Ideally, you will be able to find a boom or bust type of play. Someone who has the potential to break open a slate. That is not always the easiest thing to do. Last week this strategy worked out perfectly in my lineups. I made 5 lineups for the week and after the 1:00 games, I was only cashing in one of them. It just so happened that in each of the other 4 lineups, I had DK Metcalf in the FLEX spot. Knowing that Metcalf was talked about on most preview shows and articles around the industry, I knew he would be highly owned. It just so happened that Metcalf’s teammate Tyler Lockett was going to be lower owned and is the definition of a boom or bust fantasy player. I’ll start off by saying, in most weeks it will not work out like this and you will not have this good of an option to pivot to, but this was one time that it worked out perfectly. Metcalf finished with 4.3 points and Lockett broke the slate with a jaw dropping 56 points. Again, I will tell you that it will most likely never work out this perfectly again, but this is exactly why we leave the option open for the late swap.
Now that I have gotten my point across on the late swap, we are on to Week 8. It’s hard to believe that we are already almost halfway through the Regular Season. This is another week where there are a ton of stacking options to start your team with. It’s hard to argue with starting your lineups with Mahomes, Wilson or Rodgers, but instead I’m going to start mine with some value plays this week. Here are my Week 8 Draft Kings plays. As a reminder, we focus on the Sunday Main Slate only.
Stack #1
LV @ CLE: Implied game total of 51 points.
1. Derek Carr - $5500
-Carr has 24, 28 and 20 points in his last 3 games, which included matchups with BUF, KC and TB. He has continued to produce against the better teams in the league and things will get a bit easier this week with CLE. Carr has thrown for at least 260 yards in all but one game this season, as well.
2. Darren Waller - $5600
-Waller has at least 7 targets and 15 points in each of his last 3 games. He remains Carr’s favorite target in the Red Zone and his price seems a bit too cheap this week.
3. Kareem Hunt - $6900
-Hunt has been the model of consistency this year, with only one down game so far. That came against Pittsburgh who is very solid against the run. Hunt should be in line for at least 20 touches and plenty of work in the Red Zone.
**This leaves you with $5333 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of apnews.com
Stack #2
CIN vs TEN: Implied game total of 53.5 points.
1. Joe Burrow - $6200
2. AJ Green - $4500
3. Derrick Henry - $8000
**This leaves you with $5217 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of espn.com
Favorite Plays
1. Patrick Mahomes - $8100 vs NYJ
2. Justin Herbert - $6900 @ DEN
3. Jonathan Taylor - $6600 @ DET
4. James Conner - $6400 @ BAL
5. Davante Adams - $8800 vs MIN
6. Keenan Allen - $6200 @ DEN (most underpriced player on the slate)
7. Travis Kelce - $6600 vs NYJ
8. Trey Burton - $3500 at DET
Photo courtesy of bleacherreport.com
Sleepers
1. Zack Moss - $4400 vs NE
2. Le’Veon Bell - $4600 vs NYJ
3. Rashad Higgins - $4200 vs LV
4. Denzel Mims - $3200 @ KC
5. Nelson Agholor - $4700 @CLE
Photo courtesy of kansascity.com
I absolutely love the value plays that are on this slate. I think there is an opportunity to build some very strong and balanced lineups this week. Scoring has been way up this year in the NFL, and it has been up in DFS as well. Last week, you needed to score at least 200 points to cash in most contests and I think this week will be more of the same. Don’t be afraid to take chances on some of the boom or bust plays that are out there. After all we are not here to bunt, we are here to hit the ball out of the ballpark aka win the big money. As always, if you have any DFS questions, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121. Good luck this week!
-Jason Sullivan
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